Tag Archives: exas

EXACT Sciences Corporation: EXAS

I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER! This is my attempt to better understand the cause/effect relationship of FDA Advisory Committee (AdComm) meetings on BioTech/Pharm stocks. This is for my own education, not to serve to advise or recommend any path for others. If looking for advice look elsewhere. If trying to understand the same stuff I’m trying to understand, please draw your own conclusions… mine are nuts, and would likely put you in the poor house.

Yahoo Finance Quote
FDAAC Meeting is scheduled for Mar 27, 2014.
Twitter Conversation
Meeting Materials
Entire Webcast (third-party provider… costs money)

RECOMMENDED APPROVAL

Notes

  • Trading in a comfortable range, $13… I like this closer to $12
  • Fecal Colo-rectal cancer screen called Cologuard®
  • Need to see safety data and efficacy as compared to exiting tests
  • Put:Call ratio is a little high
  • Connections to the second Bush administration could either hurt or help
  • Here’s a dated, but relevant overview of the Deep-C trial results, describing satisfied end-points.
  • Gosh I wish this were a blood test instead of a fecal test… we get blood tests all the time… how often do you like to poop in a box and send it to someone (for medical reasons, of course)?
  • The CEO, CSO and COO most recently sold shares… a few thousand
  • Meeting Materials appear to be favorable to Approval recommendation
  • AdComm voted 10-0 to Recommend Approval
  • After-hours trading generated a resounding “thud”
Date Open High Low Close Change from Prior
3/24/2014
Materials
14.20 14.43 13.61 14.22 0.66 (4.867%)
3/25/2014 14.35 14.77 13.80 14.25 0.03 (0.211%)
3/26/2014 14.50 14.50 13.61 13.75 -0.5 (-3.509%)
3/27/2014 Trading Halted for AdComm
3/28/2014 14.49 14.60 12.52 12.86 -0.89 (-6.473%)
3/31/2014 13.40 14.39 13.26 14.17 1.31 (10.187%)
4/1/2014 14.47 14.49 13.99 14.16 -0.01 (-0.07%)
4/2/2014 14.12 14.33 13.88 14.25 0.09 (0.636%)
4/3/2014 13.60 13.74 12.89 12.92 -1.33 (-9.333%)
5-day 14.49 14.60 12.52 12.92 -0.83 (-6.036%)
  • There was a 4.867% bump on the Close of the Materials Release date from the prior Close… materials were released during the trading day.
  • Best results would have been to have bought on the 21st, four trading days before the AdComm, on news that the Chairman resigned for “personal reasons”. Naturally, this is not where I bought.
  • There was a 6.473% drop on the trading day after the unanimous AdComm Approval vote from the prior Close.
  • What… the… hell?!? “Priced in” is one thing… dropping nearly 6.5% is completely another. This is madness.
  • The first Open after the Approval Recommendation was up 5.382%… within four minutes it maxed out at 14.60, or 6.182% above the previous close.
  • The first trading day post-vote High was 0.759% higher than the Open, and occurred within 4 minutes of trading.
  • The first trading day post-vote Low was 13.596% lower than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Close was 11.249% lower than the Open.
  • The five-day High was 0.759% higher than the five-day Open, and occurred on the first day.
  • The five-day Low was 13.596% lower than the five-day Open, and occurred on the fifth day (second day experienced significant low as well).