Category Archives: Completed

STAAR Surgical Company: STAA

I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER! This is my attempt to better understand the cause/effect relationship of FDA Advisory Committee (AdComm) meetings on BioTech/Pharm stocks. This is for my own education, not to serve to advise or recommend any path for others. If looking for advice look elsewhere. If trying to understand the same stuff I’m trying to understand, please draw your own conclusions… mine are nuts, and would likely put you in the poor house.

Yahoo Finance Quote
FDAAC Meeting was RESCHEDULED for Mar 14, 2014 from Feb 14, 2014 due to weather.
Twitter Conversation
Meeting Materials

RECOMMENDED APPROVAL

Entire Webcast (third-party provider… costs money)

Note

  • I watched the surgery performed on YouTube… I HATE seeing anything touching an eye… this SUCKED.
  • I’m no longer long STAA
Date Open High Low Close Change from Prior
2/12/2014
Materials 2/12
15.75 16.01 14.67 14.70 -0.99 (-6.31%)
AdComm Postponed One Month Due to Weather
3/13/2014 14.73 15.15 14.62 15.09 0.46 (3.144%)
3/14/2014 15.20 15.636 15.20 15.37 0.28 (1.855%)
The Webcast for the AdComm was not publicized.
To my great surprise, there was no firestorm to buy at ridiculous prices in the After-hours market.
3/17/2014 17.99 19.50 17.44 17.70 2.330 (15.159%)
3/18/2014 17.36 17.50 16.44 17.12 -0.58 (-3.277%)
3/19/2014 17.14 17.37 16.67 17.27 0.15 (0.876%)
3/20/2014 17.27 17.35 17.0 17.06 -0.21 (-1.216%)
3/21/2014 17.06 17.06 16.33 16.61 -0.45 (2.638%)
5-day 17.99 19.50 16.33 16.61 1.24 (8.068%)
  • There was a 6.31% drop on the Close of the Materials Release date from the prior Close… materials appear to have been released during the trading day, but not certain of this.
  • Best results would have been to have bought on the 12th, two trading days before the AdComm
  • The first Open after the Approval Recommendation was up 17.046%… within ten minutes it maxed out at 19.50, or 26.87%.
  • The first trading day post-vote High was 8.394% higher than the Open, and occurred 10 minutes into trading.
  • The first trading day post-vote Low was 3.057% lower than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Close was 1.612% lower than the Open.
  • The five-day High was 8.394% higher than the five-day Open, and occurred on the first day.
  • The five-day Low was 9.227% lower than the five-day Open, and occurred on the fifth day (second day experienced significant low as well).

This encourages selling promptly after Open: the low of the first candle after the first red candle, at 8:44am EDT on the day was 18.80. After 8:47am EDT it did not approach 18.80 again.

This disputes the argument that you can short from the Open to cover at 20% of Open: the Low for the day was only 3.057% lower than the Open… in fact the Low was only 10.564% lower than the High.

These points could also suggest NOTHING, you greedy pig!

The Medicines Company: MDCO

I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER! This is my attempt to better understand the cause/effect relationship of FDA Advisory Committee (AdComm) meetings on BioTech/Pharm stocks. This is for my own education, not to serve to advise or recommend any path for others. If looking for advice look elsewhere. If trying to understand the same stuff I’m trying to understand, please draw your own conclusions… mine are nuts, and would likely put you in the poor house.

Yahoo Finance Quote
FDAAC Meeting on Feb 12, 2014
Twitter Conversation
Meeting Materials

RECOMMENDED REJECTION

Webcast to Morning Break
Webcast from Morning Break to Lunch Break
Webcast from Lunch Break to Afternoon Break
Webcast from Afternoon Break to End of Meeting

The recommendation led to a drop of 4.15 (12.5%) from the close at 33.1 on 2/12 to open at 28.95 on 2/13, and of 3.82 (11.5%) to the close at 29.28 om 2/13.

Date Open High Low Close Change from Prior
2/10/2014
Materials 2/9
31.51 32.86 30.50 32.42 -1.80 (-5.26%)
2/11/2014 32.41 34.21 31.82 33.10 0.68 (2.097%)
2/12/2014 Trading Halted for AdCom
2/13/2014 28.95 29.569 28 29.28 -3.82 (-11.5%)
2/14/2014 29.1 30.045 29 29.52 0.24 (0.819%)
2/18/2014 29.655 30.09 29.55 30 0.48 (1.626%)
2/19/2014 29.76 30.872 29 29.84 -0.16 (-0.533%)
2/20/2014 29.67 30.82 29.41 30.64 0.80 (2.681%)
5-day 28.95 30.872 28 30.64 -2.46 (-7.432%)
  • There was a 5.26% drop from the Close of the Materials Release date to the Close after we had access to the info.
  • Best results (in the event of an approval) would have been to have bought on the 10th, two trading days before the AdComm
  • The first trading day post-vote High was 2.1% higher than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Low was 3.281% lower than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Close was 1.14% higher than the Open.
  • The fifth trading day post-vote Close was 5.838% higher than the first trading day Open.
  • The five-day High was the fourth trading day High.
  • The five-day High was 6.639% higher than the five-day Open.
  • The five-day Low was the first trading day Low. In other words: bad news is very fast to be reflected in the price.
  • The five-day Low was 3.282% lower than the five-day Open.

This could suggest covering shorts at 2% below first-day Open and entering long to exit at 5% of the cover price (or could suggest NOTHING, you greedy pig!). With my lot sizes, 2% isn’t worth it, and getting that complicated for an extra 2% would be silly.

Chelsea Therapeutics International Ltd.: CHTP

I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER! This is my attempt to better understand the cause/effect relationship of FDA Advisory Committee (AdComm) meetings on BioTech/Pharm stocks. This is for my own education, not to serve to advise or recommend any path for others. If looking for advice look elsewhere. If trying to understand the same stuff I’m trying to understand, please draw your own conclusions… mine are nuts, and would likely put you in the poor house.

Yahoo Finance Quote
FDAAC Meeting on Jan 14, 2014
Twitter Conversation
Meeting Materials

RECOMMENDED APPROVAL

Webcast from Start of Meeting to Morning Break
Webcast from Morning Break to Lunch Break
Webcast from Lunch Break to Afternoon Break
Webcast from Afternoon Break to End of Meeting

The recommendation led to an increase of 3.46 (150.434%) from the close at 2.3 on 1/13 to open at 5.76 on 1/15, and of 2.11 (91.739%) to the close at 4.41 om 1.15.

Date Open High Low Close Change from Prior
1/10/2014
Materials 1/9
2.50 2.72 2.26 2.50 -1.03 (-29.178%)
1/13/2014 2.61 2.62 2.27 2.3 -0.20 (-8%)
1/14/2014 Trading Halted for AdComm
1/15/2014 5.76 5.78 4.28 4.41 2.11 (91.739%)
1/16/2014 4.40 4.80 4.16 4.70 0.29 (6.576%)
1/17/2014 4.75 4.85 4.62 4.76 0.06 (1.277%)
1/21/2014 4.85 5.02 4.64 4.79 0.03 (0.63%)
1/22/2014 4.81 4.85 4.55 4.645 -0.145 (-3.027%)
5-day 5.76 5.78 4.16 4.645 2.345 (101.96%)
  • There was a 29.178% drop from the Close of the Materials Release date to the Close after we had access to the info.
  • Best results would have been to have bought on the 10th, two trading days before the AdComm
  • The first trading day post-vote High was 0.3% higher than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Low was 25.7% lower than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Close was 24% lower than the Open.
  • The five-day High was the High of the first trading day.
  • The five-day High was 0.347% higher than the five-day Open.
  • The five-day Low was the Low of the second trading day.
  • The five-day Low was 12.539% lower than the five-day Open.
  • The actual HIGH was in After-Hours of the afternoon of the vote, at over 6.30… After-hours is a pretty terrific exit point.

This suggests selling at Open and shorting from the Open to cover at 20% of Open (or could suggest NOTHING, you greedy pig!). Still, shorting at all is just scary for me at the moment. In the future I’ll be happy to exit in after-hours, but might go a little short for the experience at that time… certainly not the same position size.

UPDATE! FDA Final Approval was announced on 2/19/2014, about a month after the AdComm recommendation. CHTP went from a 2/18 Close of 4.95 to 2/19 Open of 6.65. An increase of $1.70 (34.34%). It then Closed on 2/19 at 6.16, down 0.49 (7.368%).