Monthly Archives: January 2014

Chelsea Therapeutics International Ltd.: CHTP

I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER! This is my attempt to better understand the cause/effect relationship of FDA Advisory Committee (AdComm) meetings on BioTech/Pharm stocks. This is for my own education, not to serve to advise or recommend any path for others. If looking for advice look elsewhere. If trying to understand the same stuff I’m trying to understand, please draw your own conclusions… mine are nuts, and would likely put you in the poor house.

Yahoo Finance Quote
FDAAC Meeting on Jan 14, 2014
Twitter Conversation
Meeting Materials

RECOMMENDED APPROVAL

Webcast from Start of Meeting to Morning Break
Webcast from Morning Break to Lunch Break
Webcast from Lunch Break to Afternoon Break
Webcast from Afternoon Break to End of Meeting

The recommendation led to an increase of 3.46 (150.434%) from the close at 2.3 on 1/13 to open at 5.76 on 1/15, and of 2.11 (91.739%) to the close at 4.41 om 1.15.

Date Open High Low Close Change from Prior
1/10/2014
Materials 1/9
2.50 2.72 2.26 2.50 -1.03 (-29.178%)
1/13/2014 2.61 2.62 2.27 2.3 -0.20 (-8%)
1/14/2014 Trading Halted for AdComm
1/15/2014 5.76 5.78 4.28 4.41 2.11 (91.739%)
1/16/2014 4.40 4.80 4.16 4.70 0.29 (6.576%)
1/17/2014 4.75 4.85 4.62 4.76 0.06 (1.277%)
1/21/2014 4.85 5.02 4.64 4.79 0.03 (0.63%)
1/22/2014 4.81 4.85 4.55 4.645 -0.145 (-3.027%)
5-day 5.76 5.78 4.16 4.645 2.345 (101.96%)
  • There was a 29.178% drop from the Close of the Materials Release date to the Close after we had access to the info.
  • Best results would have been to have bought on the 10th, two trading days before the AdComm
  • The first trading day post-vote High was 0.3% higher than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Low was 25.7% lower than the Open.
  • The first trading day post-vote Close was 24% lower than the Open.
  • The five-day High was the High of the first trading day.
  • The five-day High was 0.347% higher than the five-day Open.
  • The five-day Low was the Low of the second trading day.
  • The five-day Low was 12.539% lower than the five-day Open.
  • The actual HIGH was in After-Hours of the afternoon of the vote, at over 6.30… After-hours is a pretty terrific exit point.

This suggests selling at Open and shorting from the Open to cover at 20% of Open (or could suggest NOTHING, you greedy pig!). Still, shorting at all is just scary for me at the moment. In the future I’ll be happy to exit in after-hours, but might go a little short for the experience at that time… certainly not the same position size.

UPDATE! FDA Final Approval was announced on 2/19/2014, about a month after the AdComm recommendation. CHTP went from a 2/18 Close of 4.95 to 2/19 Open of 6.65. An increase of $1.70 (34.34%). It then Closed on 2/19 at 6.16, down 0.49 (7.368%).

December Continues to Empower Buyers

Last month we covered the market updates that indicated that buyers are becoming more powerful in the current real estate market. This month we see a continuation of that trend. Here’s the update:

* Note: Information presented here is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed!

AvgSaleListPrice

 

Average and Median Sale and List Price
While the Active Average and Median List Prices are still on the rise, Pended and Sold Average and Median List Prices continued to slip. We’ll put that into context in a moment…

ListingInventory

Listing Inventory
Listing Inventory has been dropping since September, which would suggest that buyers have fewer options. Normally, reduced supply would coincide with increased prices, but guess what: we actually have fewer interested buyers. I’ll make that case soon…

DaysOnMarketDays on Market
How long does a listing stay on the market when Sellers have the control? Not long. We’re still doing much better than back in February of last year, but we’re creeping up. With Average Days on Market of 80.9 and Cumulative Days on Market of 88.1, sellers need to make a better base to move their properties. The “Cumulative” is what matters.

SaleToListRatio

Sale to List Price Ratio
This is where the case is most clearly demonstrated: While the Sale to List Price Ratio is up (97.6%), the Sale to Original List Price Ratio continued down, yet again, to 94.5%. That’s right: the average reduction in sale price from the original list price was 5.5%. If you were looking at a $200,000 property, you’d stand a decent chance of making it “home” for $189k.

Summary
Even with fewer properties competing for your attention, Sellers are giving more at the closing table to get out of the market.

Are you feeling a little more powerful now? I hope so :).